Imagine, if you will, what it is like to be a meteorologist at a weather station -- checking instruments, looking at the history, inputting data and reading computer models. Maybe they are outside during an early hour of the day and setting off a weather balloon to disappear into the sky.
"Things" have been very much the same for weeks and week. Then, it looks as though there is something new on the horizon ... Here is what is on today's forecast discussion page:
"The latest model guidance has slowed down our incoming
moisture arrival and now the disturbance is packing a bigger precipitation punch than we saw just last night. ..... Moving into Sunday and Monday: As precipitation amounts continue an upward trend, one useful tool to see how "extreme" an event is with respect to
climatology (EFI) has continued to get excited about the
QPF for Sunday into Monday. Within a 5 week
climatology period, this data set would suggest that there is an increasing potential (from 2 to 5 and now at 8) for an extreme event to unfold. Now, we take into consideration how dry it has been for the last 4 of the 5 weeks and an influx of the Monsoonal
moisture pushing northward..."
A QPF is simply a Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. What they believe it will amount to
.
Rain.
We thought we heard a tree come down too, but it must have been one of his neighbors. At home, none of my trees were damaged... and fortunately the EAA avoided the worst winds.
