Be, it's not the gas stations rationing gas that's the problem. They simply run out. Their storage tanks can only hold so much and the tankers can't get to them to restock. It's standard procedure for them to restock when these things are forecast. The big oil companies have seen this before, they know to prepare. To me rationing makes sense, it keeps one person from pulling up with a big tank and hogging all the gas. In a crisis like that it could easily lead to shooting.
That Houston mayor said not to evacuate. I wonder if he'll get reelected. It's not just Houston either. There are a lot of other towns around in big trouble.
I was in Houston when they evacuated for Rita in 2005. They didn't have a clue what to do. Any massive evacuation is going to be a mess. The interstates are going to become parking lots, gas will be short, food and water at those gas stations and any stores on the evacuation routes will run out. Ice becomes precious. Bathrooms are scarce. If you can make a regular three hour trip in twelve you are probably doing well. The authorities need to plan for this. When they decided to reverse flow, make all interstates leave Houston instead of half of those traffic lanes sit empty, it took then a long time to make that work. The main problem was they could not find the traffic barricades to make that work. They also had to dedicate certain personnel to install them and direct traffic. It might have helped if they had a map showing where to put the barricades when they started. Planning is more than sitting on your thumb.
I was in Houston because my job had been moved from New Orleans to Houston because of Katrina. I remember all the snide comments about New Orleans evacuation for Katrina. The Katrina evacuation wasn't bad, over 90% made it out. That's a lot, especially since New Orleans had already had an evacuation that season and some people were broke. When they decided to reverse flow they knew where the barricades were and where they should go. Those snide comments stopped when Houston gained some actual experience with evacuation.
Evacuation is stressful. A friend was evacuating New Orleans before Katrina with her husband, four kids, and her elderly father. The elderly father died from the stress. In the car with those kids. When you evacuate you leave your home unprotected from thieves and looters. If there is some damage, say a roof leak, if you are gone you can't fix it before it becomes a major problem. It's expensive to evacuate. You have to pay for gas, food, water, a hotel room if you can find one, and other things. If you haven't been through it it's easy to think you just hop in your car and drive away. It's not that simple.
These things have a history of not hitting exactly where forecast or being as bad as they project. People get complacent. "I evacuated last time and I didn't need to so I'm not going this time" is a common comment. That cone of probability is important. For a lot of them exactly how it hits the shore is important, especially for storm surge. If they come in at a certain angle and hit a certain spot they can pile up a lot of water. Hit a bit differently and it's not nearly as bad. Whether they call for an evacuation can have an effect on whether insurance companies might pay up or what the city or county is liable for. It's not easy to call for an evacuation. They have to have the courage to look at how bad it could be and the probabilities of it hitting like that and call one. Or decide not to.
A Hurricane can cause problems four ways. They often spawn tornadoes, usually Category 1. How much damage they do depends a lot on luck, where do they touch down if they do. When I lived in south Louisiana I never really worried about the tornadoes.
Wind can cause structural damage, especially to roofs. It can throw debris around and cause damage and injury or death that way. Those weathermen on TV really like the dramatic wind footage don't they? To me they are stupid for standing out there and endangering themselves and their cameramen but I guess stupidity improves ratings. One thing you can pretty much count on, the wind will break off tree branches and, especially when the ground gets wet, knock over trees. As a minimum power lines are going down.
Storm surge is a huge risk, especially on the coast. Those constant counterclockwise winds can pile up a lot of water in the northeast quadrant. A lot of this depends on the terrain in that northeast quadrant. Imagine a 20 foot or greater wall of water with huge hurricane waves breaking on top of that. That will flatten anything in its path.
Then there is rain, the big problem with Harvey. These things can dump a lot of water in a short time. With a fast moving hurricane this isn't as much of a danger, but Harvey is not fast moving. He is just sitting there dumping huge amounts of water. Before Harvey, the storm that did the most damage to Houston was not a hurricane, it was Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. She did the same thing, just sat there and dumped water. Allison devastated Houston. How did the Houston mayor not remember that? 2001 wasn't that long ago.
I'm sorry but this was predictable. Harvey was forecast to sit there and dump huge amounts of rain. Houston and the surrounding area is flat. That water is not going to run off. As long as Harvey hit anywhere south of Houston then Houston was going to see this kind of rain. Houston was going to have a major flood. The Governor saw that and ordered an evacuation. The Mayor said don't go anywhere, shelter in place. I don't know if he was on meds or needed to be but to me that was a criminal decision.
I kinda agree with Cat. If the mayor said don't go what's the nursing home to do. It costs a lot to evacuate those people, find a place to take them, and find the right vehicles to move them. They can't all just hop in a bus, some require special vehicles and personnel to accompany them. Its' stressful to the weak and sick, it might cause someone to die like it did my friend's father. The people that work there have families and property of their own to take care of. If the mayor says do not go will insurance pay? Should is a big word. The nursing home should have an emergency plan to cover all that, they should be able to see what's coming and get those people out. There is a lot involved in that decision. People all over are making those kinds of decisions for their families or businesses. I've been there, it is stressful.
