Covid

flowerbug

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another relative just got out of the hospital this morning after an overnight stay. their temperature spiked to 100.7F and they broke out in a rash, but their lungs are clear and so the docs sent them home. said they were about half way through it and to keep up usual cold care.

as to how they got it their boss said they had to teach an in person class last week and one person was infected. *SMDH* wonder how many other people got infected from that...

[edited to correct temp as i thought that was wrong when someone told me, but we verified things today]
 
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Gardening with Rabbits

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A lot of things are going around. Somebody on a board I am on asking for prayers for a relative. A female in 50s, fit, healthy, went to hospital and told bacterial pneumonia and admitted and now in ICU and not given much of a chance to make it. All COVID tests are negative. People at church, kids now have stomach flu. My friend whose husband tested positive only had a fever one day, threw up once and just felt lousy and now over it. My friend who got her flu shot, has no stomach symptoms, but started with a fever, tickle in her throat and slight cough and body aches. She tested positive and at about day 6. Another friend in Kansas her grandson sat next to another student and the other tested positive and class quarantined but all worse masks. Going to be interesting if he stays well and prove masks do work.
 

flowerbug

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i keep hearing more relatives are sick so this is completely different than this past spring when more people were able to avoid it.

yes, other diseases are also going around. no doubt about that. hard to get help if you need it when the hospitals get full. so once again people, take care of yourselves! thank you and good night! ♥
 

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Johns Hopkins Study Saying COVID-19 Has 'Relatively No Effect on Deaths' in U.S. Deleted After Publication


by MATT MARGOLIS NOV 27, 2020 11:24 AM ET



Conventional wisdom is that COVID-19 has caused thousands of deaths in the United States and nearly 1.5 million worldwide. This perception has been directly challenged by a study published by Johns Hopkins University on Sunday, November 22.

Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Johns Hopkins University, critically analyzed the impact that COVID-19 had on U.S. deaths. According to her, the impact of COVID-19 on deaths in the United States can be fully understood by comparing it to the number of total deaths in the country.

According to study, “in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.”
Wait, what? Really?

That’s what it says. And, it should come as no surprise that not long after the study was published it was deleted within days.

Luckily, a back-up copy remains on The Wayback Machine,
and we can still read the study.
So, how exactly did the study conclude that COVID-19 has had “relatively no effect on deaths”? Here’s how the study made this determination:

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

According to Briand, “The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals.”

Briand’s analysis found that the range of deaths amongst the older population has remained within the range of past years.

So, if COVID-19 has actually had no significant impact on U.S. deaths, why does it not appear that way?

To answer that question, Briand shifted her focus to the deaths per causes ranging from 2014 to 2020. There is a sudden increase in deaths in 2020 due to COVID-19. This is no surprise because COVID-19 emerged in the U.S. in early 2020, and thus COVID-19-related deaths increased drastically afterward.
Analysis of deaths per cause in 2018 revealed that the pattern of seasonal increase in the total number of deaths is a result of the rise in deaths by all causes, with the top three being heart disease, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia.
This is true every year,” explained Briand. “Every year in the U.S. when we observe the seasonal ups and downs, we have an increase of deaths due to all causes.”
Here’s where things get interesting.

When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.
The study found that “This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years.” In fact, “the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19.”

Briand concludes that the COVID-19 death toll in the United States is misleading and that deaths from other diseases are being categorized as COVID-19 deaths.

There have reports of inflated COVID-19 deaths numbers for months. Patients who never tested positive for the disease
had COVID-19 as their cause of death on their death certificates. In May, Jared Polis, the Democrat governor of Colorado, disputed official coronavirus death counts, saying even those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were inflated from including people who tested positive for the coronavirus but died of other causes. In July, a fatal motorcycle accident victim was listed as a COVID-19 death.

On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”

-------------
TWITTER:

JHU News-Letter
@JHUNewsLetter
·23h
The article “A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19,” published in the Science & Technology section on Nov. 22, has been deleted.
JHU News-Letter
@JHUNewsLetter
·
23h
Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic. We regret that this article may have contributed to the spread of misinformation about COVID-19.
----------
They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative.
 
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valley ranch

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Listen up, The closest neighbor at the lower ranch ~ This was a few years back ~ his father was staying with him, visiting, well he had gotten sick from after a simple flu shot, he said, the illness had caused damage to one heart valve which had been replaced with a pigs heart valve, first time I heard of a pig valve being used, he was told at the time the valve would last 10years ~ it had been about 12 years since he had the valve replaced ~ he had gone home to Florida and I was hoping he would visit his son soon ~ heck of a nice guy ~ he was told at the time they replaced the valve: It could not be redone ~ well, he died the valve failed ~ I always thought: If only he hadn't gotten that dam flu shot ```

I've never gotten a flu shot ~ not planning to get this one ```
 

flowerbug

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Listen up, The closest neighbor at the lower ranch ~ This was a few years back ~ his father was staying with him, visiting, well he had gotten sick from after a simple flu shot, he said, the illness had caused damage to one heart valve which had been replaced with a pigs heart valve, first time I heard of a pig valve being used, he was told at the time the valve would last 10years ~ it had been about 12 years since he had the valve replaced ~ he had gone home to Florida and I was hoping he would visit his son soon ~ heck of a nice guy ~ he was told at the time they replaced the valve: It could not be redone ~ well, he died the valve failed ~ I always thought: If only he hadn't gotten that dam flu shot ```

I've never gotten a flu shot ~ not planning to get this one ```

pig valves don't last forever.
 

digitS'

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Johns Hopkins Study Saying COVID-19 Has 'Relatively No Effect on Deaths' in U.S. Deleted After Publication
"After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.
We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article"
The Johns Hopkins News-Letter, published by the Students of John Hopkins University link

"Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher."

"According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19."

Read for yourself what the students have to say.

Steve
 

seedcorn

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Johns Hopkins Study Saying COVID-19 Has 'Relatively No Effect on Deaths' in U.S. Deleted After Publication


by MATT MARGOLIS NOV 27, 2020 11:24 AM ET



Conventional wisdom is that COVID-19 has caused thousands of deaths in the United States and nearly 1.5 million worldwide. This perception has been directly challenged by a study published by Johns Hopkins University on Sunday, November 22.

Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Johns Hopkins University, critically analyzed the impact that COVID-19 had on U.S. deaths. According to her, the impact of COVID-19 on deaths in the United States can be fully understood by comparing it to the number of total deaths in the country.

According to study, “in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.”
Wait, what? Really?

That’s what it says. And, it should come as no surprise that not long after the study was published it was deleted within days.

Luckily, a back-up copy remains on The Wayback Machine,
and we can still read the study.
So, how exactly did the study conclude that COVID-19 has had “relatively no effect on deaths”? Here’s how the study made this determination:

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

According to Briand, “The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals.”

Briand’s analysis found that the range of deaths amongst the older population has remained within the range of past years.

So, if COVID-19 has actually had no significant impact on U.S. deaths, why does it not appear that way?



This is true every year,” explained Briand. “Every year in the U.S. when we observe the seasonal ups and downs, we have an increase of deaths due to all causes.”
Here’s where things get interesting.

The study found that “This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years.” In fact, “the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19.”

Briand concludes that the COVID-19 death toll in the United States is misleading and that deaths from other diseases are being categorized as COVID-19 deaths.

There have reports of inflated COVID-19 deaths numbers for months. Patients who never tested positive for the disease
had COVID-19 as their cause of death on their death certificates. In May, Jared Polis, the Democrat governor of Colorado, disputed official coronavirus death counts, saying even those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were inflated from including people who tested positive for the coronavirus but died of other causes. In July, a fatal motorcycle accident victim was listed as a COVID-19 death.

On Thursday, Johns Hopkins University explained that they deleted the article on the study because it “was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic.”

-------------
TWITTER:

JHU News-Letter
@JHUNewsLetter
·23h
The article “A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19,” published in the Science & Technology section on Nov. 22, has been deleted.
JHU News-Letter
@JHUNewsLetter
·
23h
Though making clear the need for further research, the article was being used to support false and dangerous inaccuracies about the impact of the pandemic. We regret that this article may have contributed to the spread of misinformation about COVID-19.
----------
They did not, however, challenge the accuracy of the data or its conclusions. In other words, the article was deleted because it didn’t fit the proper narrative.
From a stats view point this is 100%. Just do the numbers.
I’m hoping (once the media hysteria dies down) that our learned message is keep the sick (from all diseases) home. Allow the healthy to carry on with their lives.
 

flowerbug

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From a stats view point this is 100%. Just do the numbers.
I’m hoping (once the media hysteria dies down) that our learned message is keep the sick (from all diseases) home. Allow the healthy to carry on with their lives.


"As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S."

or better yet, do more research when needed.

science can be messy, for those who don't actually engage in it or understand the issues that are common when it comes down to statistics. it really doesn't help when the data is rather horrible - in this case the entire USoA would have benefited from having better standards of reporting causes of death and contributing factors.
 
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